POLLS!
Zogby/Reuters: Tied!
CNN/USA Today/Gallup registered voters: Bush within margin of error!
CNN/USA Today/Gallup likely voters: Bush by a few!
Newsweek: Tied!
Democracy Corps: Kerry within margin of error!
The Votemaster: Kerry with slight edge in electoral college!
Slate: Kerry with slight edge in electoral college!
So in other words, there's something for everybody to be happy about.
From here on out, it's going to be the state polls that really determine who has an advantage come 16 days from now. The interesting thing about both the national polls and some state polls is that the voters who are likely to decide this election -- newly-registered voters, first-time voters, people who didn't vote in 2000, etc -- are the people least likely to be properly factored into polling models.
I do, however, feel safe in the prediction that in the 24-hour period between 8AM on November 2nd and 8AM on November 3rd, every non-incarcerated adult American will file a lawsuit against every other non-incarcerated adult American.
We'll see what happens.
UPDATE: Nevertheless, I do find it interesting that the daily tracking polls of both Zogby and Rasmussen show Kerry picking up 4 points on Bush in the same 3-4 day period.
Quick dime-store theory: The Gallup poll was taken at the height of the intial reaction to Kerry's Mary Cheney comment (you know, the mock outrage and all), while the two daily trackers reflect voters saying to themselves 1) "Gee, I think they're overracting juuuust a wee bit, and 2) "Oh wait, I'm an undecided middle-class voter, what I really care about is my lost job, my lack of decent health care, and my son fighting in Iraq".
The Republicans rode "inventing the internet" a long way in 2000, and Al Gore didn't even say that. This time, actual borderline-trivial comments from John Kerry will not save them.
Zogby/Reuters: Tied!
CNN/USA Today/Gallup registered voters: Bush within margin of error!
CNN/USA Today/Gallup likely voters: Bush by a few!
Newsweek: Tied!
Democracy Corps: Kerry within margin of error!
The Votemaster: Kerry with slight edge in electoral college!
Slate: Kerry with slight edge in electoral college!
So in other words, there's something for everybody to be happy about.
From here on out, it's going to be the state polls that really determine who has an advantage come 16 days from now. The interesting thing about both the national polls and some state polls is that the voters who are likely to decide this election -- newly-registered voters, first-time voters, people who didn't vote in 2000, etc -- are the people least likely to be properly factored into polling models.
I do, however, feel safe in the prediction that in the 24-hour period between 8AM on November 2nd and 8AM on November 3rd, every non-incarcerated adult American will file a lawsuit against every other non-incarcerated adult American.
We'll see what happens.
UPDATE: Nevertheless, I do find it interesting that the daily tracking polls of both Zogby and Rasmussen show Kerry picking up 4 points on Bush in the same 3-4 day period.
Quick dime-store theory: The Gallup poll was taken at the height of the intial reaction to Kerry's Mary Cheney comment (you know, the mock outrage and all), while the two daily trackers reflect voters saying to themselves 1) "Gee, I think they're overracting juuuust a wee bit, and 2) "Oh wait, I'm an undecided middle-class voter, what I really care about is my lost job, my lack of decent health care, and my son fighting in Iraq".
The Republicans rode "inventing the internet" a long way in 2000, and Al Gore didn't even say that. This time, actual borderline-trivial comments from John Kerry will not save them.
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