The Facts Machine

"And I come back to you now, at the turn of the tide"

Friday, June 27, 2003

DEAN 1ST IN MOVEON PRIMARY

Though, possibly as expected, Kucinich finished in a strong second:

DEAN 139360 43.87%
KUCINICH 76000 23.93%
KERRY 49973 15.73%
EDWARDS 10146 3.19%
GEPHARDT 7755 2.44%
GRAHAM 7113 2.24%
BRAUN 7021 2.21%
LIEBERMAN 6095 1.92%
SHARPTON 1677 0.53%
OTHER 6121 1.93%
UNDECIDED 6378 2.01%
Because no candidate topped 50%, there will, as yet, be no endorsement/money from MoveOn. Still, this continues Dean's momentum, especially since he nearly tripled Kerry's vote total, and CW about the primary season identifies Kerry as his "rival" among the "liberal" candidates.

Interesting that while Kucinich and Sharpton poll about the same in many states (1-2%), that Kucinich finished with big-time numbers at MoveOn while Sharpton finished behind both Lieberman and "other" (including behind the as-yet undeclared General Wesley Clark).

The 23% to Kucinich, while in the short term it probably kept Dean from getting the 50% and the endorsement/$, may be good news for Dean in the long term. The reason? When more consequential votes (primaries, caucuses, etc) come along, and rational voting choices will need to be made, I'd expect that a lot of Kucinich supporters may jump ship to Dean (as some, including actor Peter Coyote, already have). Because the imperative among most Democrats is to boot Bush from the White House, I don't expect that Kucinich will "Nader" Dean in the actual primaries. Of course, if he does, Kerry/Gephardt could have the inside track. I don't know, there's a long way to go.

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