WHY BUSH WILL LOSE IN '04: FREUD EDITION

One of the funny things us anti-war types say about Baby Bush's itchiness to go to Iraq is that he has a desire to not only maintain his daddy's honor, but, by Grabthar's Hammer, to avenge the attempted assassination of poppy several years back.

This instinct of Dubya's -- demonstrated in other places as well -- could be his downfall. I'm not talking about when the drunken 30something Bush approached Al Hunt in a restaurant and said "I'm not gonna forget what you fuckers did to us" after hunt wrote some pieces in the Wall St Journal critical of Bush Sr.

I'm also talking about lessons Junior learned from Pops. George H W Bush lost his bid for reelection in 1992, largely because in the eyes of many political observers, he alienated the conservative base of his party, by being to moderate and doing something as audacious as -- gasp! -- raising taxes (a very necessary step at the time), and building an actual international coalition before entering into a war with Iraq.

And what's the lesson that Dubya takes from this? Don't alienate your right-wing, conservative base. He will be especially conscious of this as the 2004 election nears. In fact, perhaps by that time, he will have rewarded the far right so much, by signing on to virtually all of their kooky agenda, that they will be the only voters he has left. An exaggeration? Yes, but potentially not that big, time will tell.