The Facts Machine

"And I come back to you now, at the turn of the tide"

Sunday, October 31, 2004

SAY, I HEAR OHIO'S GONNA BE CLOSE

Yet the Columbus Dispatch does that one better: It's close, and it's completely decided!
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are tied at just less than 50 percent in a new Dispatch Poll.

How close is this matchup? Kerry leads by a mere eight votes out of 2,880 ballots returned in the mail survey — the tightest margin ever in a final Dispatch Poll.
50-50. Wow. And here I thought Ohio was full of undecided voters.

This poll is of "registered" voters, by the way.

The good news for Kerry is that he leads substantially among independent voters in the state (14 percent). And then there this from the how-we-did-it page:
The Dispatch obtained a computerized list of registered voters in Ohio from the secretary of state. Those who had not voted since 1999 were eliminated from the list.

Because the secretary of state was still processing new voter registrations when The Dispatch obtained the database, the polling sample includes only about 88 percent of voters who registered this year, including those from Ohio’s largest counties. Data from 20 smaller counties included new registrations only through May.
Hmm. Wonder how that other 12 percent breaks down.

GOTV!

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