The Facts Machine

"And I come back to you now, at the turn of the tide"

Thursday, September 16, 2004

RIIIIGHT

USA TODAY reports on the new Gallup Poll:
President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year.

"Wha-wha-WHAAAA!?!?"

Now now, don't panic just yet, Sheila. In fact, Colorado is a swing state this time around, so we'll need you.

Anyway, USA Today's Susan Page notes that Gallup isn't the only one out there polling:
A Pew Research Center poll released Thursday shows a tighter contest. The survey, taken Saturday through Tuesday, gives Bush a statistically insignificant lead of 47%-46% among likely voters.
Yeah, that's this poll right here.

Of course, USA Today doesn't mention that another poll from Harris shows the race to be just as close as the Pew poll shows it to be. Gallup will need some friends before that poll gets taken as anything other than an outlier.

One more nugget from the USA Today recap:
Presidential candidates have won after trailing by similar margins. One was George W. Bush himself. In 2000, he was behind Al Gore by 10 points among registered voters in early October and then prevailed in the Electoral College, though he lost the popular vote.
I assume she's referring to an early october Gallup poll. The funny part is that another Gallup poll from two weeks before the election had Bush up by a baker's dozen. So either:

1) Al Gore can fall 23 points in 3 weeks and then come back to win the popular vote, or
2) Gallup doesn't have much of a track record at this stage in the game.

UPDATE: Chris Bowers at MyDD has more on Gallup.

UPDATE II: Oh, and Investors Business Daily had it tied a couple days ago.

UPDATE III: Via Steve Soto, we learn that Gallup oversamples Republicans. Oh I'm shocked.

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