The Facts Machine

"And I come back to you now, at the turn of the tide"

Sunday, September 26, 2004

NOT BLOODY "LIKELY"

This is interesting:
A sweeping voter registration campaign in heavily Democratic areas has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that has far exceeded the efforts of Republicans in both states, a review of registration data shows.

The analysis by The New York Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: in the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas.

While comparable data could not be obtained for other swing states, similar registration drives have been mounted in them as well, and party officials on both sides say record numbers of new voters are being registered nationwide. This largely hidden but deadly earnest battle is widely believed by campaign professionals and political scientists to be potentially decisive in the presidential election.

"We know it's going on, and it's a very encouraging sign," said Steve Elmendorf, deputy campaign manager for Senator John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee. The new voters, Mr. Elmendorf said, "could very much be the difference."

A spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, Christine Iverson, declined to comment on The Times's findings and said she did not believe Republicans were lagging in the registration battle. "We're very confident that we have a ground game that's as good as the Democrats', and better," she said.
Remember, a lot of these newly-registered voters, and perhaps all of them in some cases, would not be included in Presidential polls that include only "likely voters". If, let's say, half of these newly-registered citizens vote -- a conservative estimate -- that could be all the difference the Democrats need in Florida.

It's an interesting irony that with the 2004 election becoming more crucial than the prior presidential race, the polls become less useful in determining the state of the race.

Perhaps some registration cards might get "lost" in the winds of all them hurricanes that've been roaring through the Sunshine State lately. So it could all even out.

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