FEATHER, MEET CAP. AT LEAST, FOR NOW

Of course, it's early, very early, but that's no reason I can't point out the recent Miami Herald poll of voters in Florida:

Democrat John Kerry leads President Bush by 6 percentage points in the Sunshine State, whose 27 electoral votes are crucial to the president's re-election, a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll shows.

Eight months before the election, Florida voters are widely skeptical of Bush's handling of the economy, the war in Iraq and the overall direction of the country. With the general election race effectively under way, fewer than half of Florida voters approve of the president's overall performance.

"Florida is in play," said pollster Kellyanne Conway. "This poll clearly demonstrates that the state that gave us drama and nail-biting in 2000 is proving no differently in 2004."

If the election were held today, 49 percent would vote for Massachusetts Sen. Kerry, 43 percent for Bush, and 3 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader. Only 5 percent were undecided in a state that remains starkly polarized politically.

Obviously, there's a long way to go, and these polls could be relfective of a presumed-nominee bump for Kerry. But there are plenty of veterans among the beachside communities of what Conan O'Brien once jokingly referred to as "America's End-Zone".

I'm skeptical about Florida, nevertheless. Because of the 2000 hoopla -- you know, when tens of thousands more Floridians went to the polls with the intent of voting for Gore, but then all that fun stuff happened -- Florida will probably get more attention as a battleground state than it deserves. I'm guessing that if the national race is close, Bush will probably hold on to Florida; perhaps Democrats like myself believe this after our ill-founded optimism that Bill McBride could defeat Jeb back in '02. (Needless to say, however, Kerry is no McBride) If it's close, the more relevant battleground states will probably be Ohio, Arizona, Missouri, and Pennsylvania. You could also throw in Louisiana, Nevada and New Hampshire if you wanted.