The Facts Machine

"And I come back to you now, at the turn of the tide"

Tuesday, February 03, 2004

PRIMARY WRAP-UP

Results:

Kerry wins Delaware, South Dakota, Arizona, New Mexico and Missouri.

Edwards wins South Carolina decisively over Kerry.

Clark edges out Edwards to win Oklahoma.

Dean picked up 4 delegates. Sharpton picked up 1.

The victories for Clark and Edwards will probably slow Kerry's momentum to the point where his nomination is no longer viewed as Absolutely Inevitable, the way Dean's was from October through early January. This is modestly, very modestly good news for Dean, who needs less Kerry momentum going into the Michigan, Washington, and Wisconsin contests in the coming week.

Edwards ought to feel pretty good about the way things went tonight, winning South Carolina by more than any of the pundits and polling organizations had predicted. With Virginia and Tennessee looming just a week from now, Edwards might see an upswing of support come his way in the South.

The national media, who have an interest, mostly financial, in whittling down the field, did not get their wish, with Edwards and Clark performing well enough to remain competitive. Both will probably survive all the way to Super Tuesday, if not further.

If Kerry, or another non-Dean, wins in Michigan and Washington, Dean will probably drop out, as he probably should. Whether he does that or not, it is because of Howard Dean that our current crop of candidates is so strong. He put the fight in their bellies long before it would have been there otherwise.

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