The Facts Machine

"And I come back to you now, at the turn of the tide"

Friday, January 16, 2004

KERRY TAKES THE LEAD IN IOWA

Here are the numbers from Zogby's daily tracking poll (1/13-15), with the previous poll results in parentheses (1/12-14):
Kerry 24 (22)
Dean 19 (21)
Gephardt 19 (21)
Edwards 17 (17)
Now I'm surprised by this. It's true that Dean and Gep have been slugging it out against eachother for a while, with both candidates going pretty negative. That may have turned off some Iowa voters, but for them to coalesce around John Kerry seems strange to me. I would have expected Edwards to make the big move instead, especially after the Des Moines Register endorsement.

I'm sticking to my prediction of a small Dean victory, with either Kerry or Gephardt in second. The Jimmy Carter appearance is coming up on sunday, and that could tip the scales in the Doctor's favor.

More good news for John Kerry is this: According to ARG's tracking poll, he seems to be gaining ground in New Hampshire. In the same three-day period that his numbers went up 7 percent in Iowa, they went up 5 percent in the Granite State. He'd still have to leapfrog both Clark and Dean, but that task could be easier if he rides into New Hampshire after winning Iowa.

More fair tidings for Kerry: If he comes back and wins Iowa, he's gonna get positive press treatment as a resilient, "comeback" candidate. Furthermore, it would be a good thing if the Democratic nominee shows that he can come back from adversity. Dean did it by moving from being a fringe, moneyless candidacy to the insurgent frontrunner, so maybe Kerry has it in him too.

No matter what happens, this will be very exciting.

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