The Facts Machine

"And I come back to you now, at the turn of the tide"

Tuesday, December 16, 2003

CBS/NYT POLL: 6% OF AMERICANS ARE SUPERFICIAL, EASILY-SWAYED MORONS

I happen to think the number is higher than that, but that percentage is limited to Bush's approval rating after Saddam's capture.
The immediate impact of the capture of Saddam Hussein by U.S. troops includes improvements in public perception of how the war is going for the U.S. in Iraq, whether it has been worth it, and assessments of President Bush's handling of Iraq.

Yet, the public is divided over whether the capture of Saddam Hussein means the U.S. has won the war in Iraq, and despite Saddam Hussein's arrest, few believe the war is over or that this country is now safer from terrorism.

In the last few days, there has been a double-digit rise in President Bush's rating on handling Iraq, some improvement in his overall approval rating, and a large shift in the public's mood. But so far, the President has made only small gains in his race for re-election, and personal evaluations of him and his domestic programs have changed little.

In CBS News/New York Times polling conducted December 10-13, the four days before the former Iraqi leader's arrest, Bush's job approval rating was 52 percent. In the two days after U.S. forces captured Saddam Hussein, the President's overall approval rating rose modestly to 58 percent, with 33 percent disapproving. Bush's approval rating is his highest since last July.
From 52% to 58%. So with the capture of Saddam Hussein -- by our troops, not Bush, who have been looking for him for months anyway -- caused six percent of Americans to change their minds and decide that yeah, Bush has actually been doing a good job? To be honest, I'm pleasantly surprised that it's only six percent.

From a political standpoint, this is a wholly meaningless gain. If Saddam's capture leads to the breaking of the insurgency's back and a decrease in violence in Iraq, then I'll have greater cause for optimism as to this development, and not coincidentally, Bush would start seeing his numbers go more significantly up and stay there. But so far this doesn't seem to be the case.

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