MORE RECALL POLLING

Now the LA Times has a new poll out.

A solid majority of likely voters favors removing Gov. Gray Davis from office in the recall election Tuesday, and Arnold Schwarzenegger has surged ahead of his rivals in the race to succeed him, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

By 56% to 42%, likely voters support ousting the Democratic incumbent, a sign that Davis has lost ground in the closing phase of his battle for political survival. Support for Davis has slipped among key parts of his political base — Democrats, women, moderates and liberals among them — since the last Times poll in early September found 50% for the recall and 47% against it.

It now looks as if the 9th Circuit drama from a couple weeks ago hurt Davis in that it stifled his apparent momentum.

The poll seems to confirm the trends hinted at in the Gallup poll that came out a few days prior, namely that support for the recall is holding (though Gallup has it holding in the mid-60s, rather than the mid-50s here).

Also, Arnold has taken the lead over Bustamante, 40-32. Not an insurmountable lead, mind you, but enough for the Davis camp to essentially write off Cruz's chances and frame the remainder of the campaign as Davis vs. Ahhnuld. I sure hope Arnold passing Cruz has something to do with Bustamante's relatively passive campaign style. Because if it has to do with the public thinking Arnold "won" that debate with his scripted nonsense and sexism, then I'm off to Reno.

Arianna's departure from the race seems aimed equally at rallying support around Davis and Cruz, possibly tilting toward Gray. Now if only she could get Camejo to do the same thing. It's easier for Arianna to drop out, because she doesn't have a specific party apparatus behind her pressuring her to stay in, as Camejo's Green Party supporters would. Though I do think that Camejo is on record as saying something to the effect of "I'm against the recall, and I'll understand if you vote for Bustamante". Plus, in the debates, Arianna was much more combative with Cruz than Camejo was.

I'm not sure what to make of the LAT's finding that 7% of Democrats support McClintock.

Going back to Gray vs Arnold . . . I really wonder what the dynamics of this recall election would have been if no prominent Democrat had entered the race. Davis would have been able to focus on Arnold right from the start, and we wouldn't have seen the shaky relationship between Gray and Cruz highlighted for so long. On the other hand, the liberal contingent of voters in the 2nd question would have moved more to Huffington and Camejo, and they might have been more emboldened to attack Davis if they had more support. See, these what-if games are complicated.

Davis is absolutely flooding the airwaves with commercials, chipping away at Arnold however he can. It's anybody's guess how this will pan out next week.