CRUZ TO CRUISE OUT OF RACE?
Bustamante dropping out? I have no idea if this would actually happen.
From a California Politics Review piece:
As many have pointed out before, Davis has thrived as a campaigner in the past by essentially saying "hey, look at the alternative". If you're a Democrat but you don't particularly like Davis--and there are a lot of those--and you see Bustamante, a prominent state Democrat who's not Davis, and is Hispanic, that's a pretty good alternative. But without a prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot (and after what he almost did to last year's election, Camejo's not going to get a lot of Dem support), Davis looks pretty darn good next to the alternatives, namely a groping 'roiding gangbanger airhead, and a far-right-wing anti-tax anti-choice maniac.
What about Cruz and the Hispanic vote? I don't know. He polls very well with the demographic, naturally. What I wonder is, how many of them would vote for the recall, in the interest of getting a Hispanic governor in California? If Bustamante takes himself off the table, the the result of voting for the recall would be a governor Arnold, with his support for Prop 187 and with Pete Wilson on his campaign staff. Then again, with Cruz telling everybody to vote against the recall wherever he goes, I'm not sure how many of his supporters would actually vote for Davis' ouster.
I'll keep thinking about this. But if Cruz does drop out, that would alter the dynamics of the situation significantly.
The one big positive of Cruz having stayed in the race thus far is that, practically by himself, he's assured the defeat of Prop 54.
(link via political wire)
Bustamante dropping out? I have no idea if this would actually happen.
From a California Politics Review piece:
Lt Gov. Cruz Bustamante is “highly likely” to drop out of the race to replace Gov. Gray Davis tomorrow barring a last minute change of mind, according to a Sacramento source close to the lieutenant governor’s campaign.Well, I don't think that Cruz would end up that far down.
As panic over a looming Republican capture of the governor’s office has spread from the Davis camp through the ranks of Democrat elected officials and donors, Bustamante has been subjected to enormous pressure to withdraw his candidacy. Top level Democrats believe Bustamante now has no hope of overtaking Arnold Schwarzenegger on the candidate portion of the ballot, and that he is, in fact, sinking so fast he could finish third, behind both Schwarzenegger and state Sen. Tom McClintock.
Many Democrats now believe their only chance of retaining the governor’s office is to defeat the recall. They hope Bustamante’s withdrawal will convince enough of the 27 to 30 percent of registered Democrats now supporting the recall to change their minds once they see no chance of replacing an ousted Davis with another Democrat.
As many have pointed out before, Davis has thrived as a campaigner in the past by essentially saying "hey, look at the alternative". If you're a Democrat but you don't particularly like Davis--and there are a lot of those--and you see Bustamante, a prominent state Democrat who's not Davis, and is Hispanic, that's a pretty good alternative. But without a prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot (and after what he almost did to last year's election, Camejo's not going to get a lot of Dem support), Davis looks pretty darn good next to the alternatives, namely a groping 'roiding gangbanger airhead, and a far-right-wing anti-tax anti-choice maniac.
What about Cruz and the Hispanic vote? I don't know. He polls very well with the demographic, naturally. What I wonder is, how many of them would vote for the recall, in the interest of getting a Hispanic governor in California? If Bustamante takes himself off the table, the the result of voting for the recall would be a governor Arnold, with his support for Prop 187 and with Pete Wilson on his campaign staff. Then again, with Cruz telling everybody to vote against the recall wherever he goes, I'm not sure how many of his supporters would actually vote for Davis' ouster.
I'll keep thinking about this. But if Cruz does drop out, that would alter the dynamics of the situation significantly.
The one big positive of Cruz having stayed in the race thus far is that, practically by himself, he's assured the defeat of Prop 54.
(link via political wire)
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