WELL, WE NOW HAVE A TREND

In the past month, we've seen a number of polls on the California recall election. Generally, the trends show a decreasing amount of support for removing Davis, from 64% (Gallup, 8/13) to 58% (Field Poll, a few days later) to 50% (LA Times, a week after that). While we haven't seen multiple polls from the same organization, this trend has held reasonably true over time.

But now, we have a second poll from a specific organization. The Field Poll has done a second round of recall polling, which seems to verify the suspected trend.

The Field Poll, set for release Tuesday, found that 55 percent of likely voters support the recall, down from 58 percent in an August poll.

Supporters of the recall don't really have anything new to say, so it's hard to see how the pro-recall numbers could ever make it back to the high 50's or 60's. Combine this with Dianne Feinstein's anti-recall ads continuing to saturate the tv networks, as well as Bustamante's plan to energize Latinos and others by pouring money into the anti-Prop54 effort, and the prospects for the recall dim.

With only a month to go before the election (pending a 9th Circuit ruling), it is uncertain how far the downward trend will take support for the recall by then. It's gonna be very close. I'm going to stick with my prediction that Gray holds on.