WILL THERE BE FLORIDA-STYLE LITIGATION IN 2004?
Count this as another bold TFM prediction.
Yesterday I told you that the so-called "Incumbent Rule" would hold, meaning that undecided voters will largely swing to Kerry on election day.
Today I address that other nagging question on people's minds: Will we see a repeat of Florida? Will we have multiple Floridas?
My bold prediction: No. In fact, my even bolderer prediction is that we will know the winner of the presidential election no later than noon on Wednesday, probably on Tuesday night.
What's my basis for such a bold claim? Our culture, that's what.
We Americans are a people of bandwagoners and sequel-whores. When something happens, it can't just happen by itself; it has to be a trend, or part of a greater narrative.
An example from the world of politics: James Jeffords' departure from the Republican Party in the spring of 2001. Do you remember what happened in the immediate aftermath of that event? There was massive media speculation that other members of Congress would shift parties as well, including Sens. John McCain, Zell Miller and Lincoln Chafee. Despite the near-orgasm of shifty speculation from our media, all of these men deprived the press of their happy ending.
And it's not just politics, but also our culture that can't stop at one. Take movies: Dante's Peak is followed by Volcano, Deep Impact is followed by Armageddon, Antz is followed by A Bug's Life, Battlefield Earth is followed by The Passion of the Christ*, and so on.
If one eccentric billionaire gets his own inane reality show, then two or three other eccentric billionaires must get their own as well.
And of course, it happens in war. Remember the day Baghdad fell in April 03? Picture CNN on that day. It mostly ran a split-screen. On the right side, you had the same 3 minutes of footage (doors being broken down, the flag on top of the Saddam sculpture, etc) recycled over and over again. But on the left, you had various talking heads speculating as to whether Syria was next. Or Iran.
The problem with this is that it's only in the controlled environments where this sort of short-term repetition occurs (movies, TV, etc). When we apply that formula to political speculation, it doesn't seem to turn out that way as much.
The speculation about possible Florida-like scenarios happening in the wake of next week's election has been rampant. Why? Because it happened in 2000, so people figure it must happen again this year. Call it a hunch, but I think those people are going to be disappointed.
Of course, I could be horribly wrong, in which case Jeebus help us all.
Count this as another bold TFM prediction.
Yesterday I told you that the so-called "Incumbent Rule" would hold, meaning that undecided voters will largely swing to Kerry on election day.
Today I address that other nagging question on people's minds: Will we see a repeat of Florida? Will we have multiple Floridas?
My bold prediction: No. In fact, my even bolderer prediction is that we will know the winner of the presidential election no later than noon on Wednesday, probably on Tuesday night.
What's my basis for such a bold claim? Our culture, that's what.
We Americans are a people of bandwagoners and sequel-whores. When something happens, it can't just happen by itself; it has to be a trend, or part of a greater narrative.
An example from the world of politics: James Jeffords' departure from the Republican Party in the spring of 2001. Do you remember what happened in the immediate aftermath of that event? There was massive media speculation that other members of Congress would shift parties as well, including Sens. John McCain, Zell Miller and Lincoln Chafee. Despite the near-orgasm of shifty speculation from our media, all of these men deprived the press of their happy ending.
And it's not just politics, but also our culture that can't stop at one. Take movies: Dante's Peak is followed by Volcano, Deep Impact is followed by Armageddon, Antz is followed by A Bug's Life, Battlefield Earth is followed by The Passion of the Christ*, and so on.
If one eccentric billionaire gets his own inane reality show, then two or three other eccentric billionaires must get their own as well.
And of course, it happens in war. Remember the day Baghdad fell in April 03? Picture CNN on that day. It mostly ran a split-screen. On the right side, you had the same 3 minutes of footage (doors being broken down, the flag on top of the Saddam sculpture, etc) recycled over and over again. But on the left, you had various talking heads speculating as to whether Syria was next. Or Iran.
The problem with this is that it's only in the controlled environments where this sort of short-term repetition occurs (movies, TV, etc). When we apply that formula to political speculation, it doesn't seem to turn out that way as much.
The speculation about possible Florida-like scenarios happening in the wake of next week's election has been rampant. Why? Because it happened in 2000, so people figure it must happen again this year. Call it a hunch, but I think those people are going to be disappointed.
Of course, I could be horribly wrong, in which case Jeebus help us all.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home