NEW HAMPSHIRE, THE DAY BEFORE

Depending on which polls you believe, Kerry leads by either a lot (12-15%) or a teeny bit (3-5%).

Zogby called Iowa pretty well, with their daily tracking poll catching the Kerry-rise trend and the Gephardt-fall pretty accurately. So let's look at their latest tracking poll of the Granite State, with the previous day's numbers in parentheses:

Kerry 31 (30)
Dean - 28 (23!)
Clark - 13 (13)
Edwards - 12 (9)
Lieberman - 9 (9)
The Others - Starring Nicole Kidman (and some other people)

Zogby's showing a real Dean surge here, now within the margin of error (4.1%). He probably doesn't have to win to beat the expectations game, a solid second should be enough to put yaaahhhhrr-gate to bed for the most part. (btw, read today's Horse on that subject)

If Edwards finishes in 3rd place ahead of Clark, that could give him quite an advantage (perhaps only in the media, but whatever) heading into the southern primaries. I'm sure he wishes the NH primary was a week from now instead of tomorrow: With Kerry Dean and Clark all attacking eachother, Edwards could have scored an Iowa-style victory if he had more time.

Might as well make a prediction, which I'll also submit over at Daily Kos.

Kerry - 29
Dean - 27
Edwards - 20
Clark - 18
Lieberman - 4
Kucinich 1
Sharpton 1

Both Edwards and Clark want Dean to do well, as a strong 2nd from Dean would blunt some of Kerry's momentum.

I think the deeper I dig into the possibilities, the more likely it would be that I'd be wrong, so I'll make like Mary Queen of Scots, and quit while I'm ahead.