WELL, THEY GOT THE "WHAT" RIGHT, BUT NOT THE "WHO"

From the Moonie Times:

Jubilant Republican strategists said yesterday that Arnold Schwarzenegger's election to the California governorship has given their party a huge boost going into the 2004 elections and will force Democrats to spend more to hold on to the state.

White House and Republican Party officials said Mr. Schwarzenegger's victory in the heavily Democratic state was a successful political pre-election test of President Bush's core campaign agenda of lower taxes, a more robust business climate and faster job creation. The agenda attracted surprisingly strong support from the Democrats' core political base, with blacks, Hispanics and labor union members voting in large numbers to oust Gov. Gray Davis and replace him with the Republican movie star.

Au contraire! This optimism is, well, misplaced, on three levels no less.

In terms of 2004, the result of the recall election does not hurt Democrats one bit. In fact, it may even help them. The simple fact is that no matter who we elect governor here, George W Bush has zero chance of winning California. So the result of Arnold's victory is a sense of false optimism among Republicans that California is ripe for a Bush victory in 2004. As a result, it will be the Republicans who waste money and resources in California, potentially making actual battleground states like West Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, Arizona and --yes-- Florida all better-than-even shots for the Democratic candidate.

At the heart of the Republicans' misjudgement on this is who the victorious governor actually is. He's Arnold friggin Schwarzenegger, a ridiculously famous movie star, who more or less ran as a ridiculously famous movie star, and not really as a Republican. Arnold's good fortune in California is not and cannot be a measuring stick for Bush's chances next year in the Golden State.

And for that matter, California booting Davis says essentially nothing about the state of support for the Democratic party in the state, and does not indicate even the slightest possibility of a Bush pickup.

But of course, I invite Bush to campaign in California with Governor Schwarzy. We can't wait to ask Bush what he thinks of Arnold's treatment of women, or what Arnold thinks (or at least, should think) of Dubya's record on jobs and the budget.