THAT GALLUP RECALL POLL

If the men and women of Gallup are doing an accurate job, then Gray Davis is toast. It shows support for the recall among likely voters at 63% (55 for registered voters), and has Ahhnuld winning the replacement election with 40%.

After a number of polls from other organizations showed support for the recall slipping to the low 50's, and 50% in the case of the Field Poll, does this new Gallup entry signify a sudden shift back towards increasing support for the recall?

Well, not really.

If you look at the Gallup numbers, they're pretty darn close to what the numbers showed in their previous poll, all the way back on August 13th. In that poll, support for the recall was in the mid-60's, while Arnold was in the mid-30's. Gallup, as far as I've seen, is the only major polling organization to ever put support for the recall above 60%. The Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute have shown numbers in the mid-50's and declining, and the LA Times has shown support to be right at 50%, in a statistical dead-heat with opposition to the recall.

Also, comparing numbers from different polling organizations is nowhere near as important as comparing trends within one specific polling organization's findings. In Gallup's case, support for the recall dropped 1%, reasonably close to the trends found by Field and the LA Times. Also, Arnold's support increased by a few percent, also consistent with Field and LAT.

In short, everybody has the same relative trends, but everybody has different starting points. Conclusion? It's anybody's guess what will happen next tuesday. One thing's for sure, though: I'm gonna be one nervous pervis.

...though I'd note that the Field Poll has proven itself much more accurate on a state level than Gallup, which is a national service...