DEAN SOARS IN NH

You would do well to disregard most of what Jodi Wilgoren says about Howard Dean in this piece. For instance, the demographics of the Dean rallies are really a non-issue; minority voters will be there for Dean in the general election, and probably in the primaries too. By contrast, the other eight announced Dem candidates would love to have the issues that Dean has; they just need supporters first. And conventional wisdom has been wrong on Dean at virtually every major juncture; this must be the fifth or sixth time Dean has been referred to as "peaking early".

What you should pay attention to, though, is the upcoming Zogby poll mentioned in the article:

Though polls taken this early in the race can be unreliable predictors, there are statistical signs to back up Dr. Dean's surge in popularity on the street. Zogby International, an independent firm, is scheduled to release Wednesday a poll showing Dr. Dean leading in New Hampshire with 38 percent of the vote to 17 percent for Senator John Kerry; in early July Senator Kerry had 25 percent to Dr. Dean's 22 percent. The poll has a margin of sampling error of 4.5 percentage points. (emphasis mine)

As the good doctor would say, "Zounds!!!"

There were rumors that John Kerry's decision to make a high-profile announcement speech in South Carolina was an indication that he was slipping in New Hampshire and he wanted to downplay that state's importance. These numbers seem to confirm his possible worry.

Also, given that Dean's Q2 fundraising goal was $6 million and they got 7.5, expect the campaign to significantly exceed its $10.3 million goal for Q3.